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Inflationary effect of oil-price shocks in an imperfect market: A partial transmission input-output analysis

机译:不完美市场中油价冲击的通货膨胀效应:部分传输投入产出分析

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摘要

This paper aims to examine the impacts of oil-price shocks on China's price levels. To that end, we develop a partial transmission input-output model that captures the uniqueness of the Chinese market. We hypothesize and simulate price control, market factors and technology substitution - the three main factors that restrict the functioning of a price pass-through mechanism during oil-price shocks. Using the models of both China and the U.S., we separate the impact of price control from those of other factors leading to China's price stickiness under oil-price shocks. The results show a sharp contrast between China and the U.S., with price control in China significantly preventing oil-price shocks from spreading into its domestic inflation, especially in the short term. However, in order to strengthen the economy's resilience to oil-price shocks, the paper suggests a gradual relaxing of price control in China.
机译:本文旨在研究石油价格冲击对中国价格水平的影响。为此,我们开发了一种部分变速箱输入输出模型,该模型可以捕捉中国市场的独特性。我们假设并模拟了价格控制,市场因素和技术替代-这三个主要因素限制了石油价格冲击期间价格传递机制的功能。使用中美两国的模型,我们将价格控制的影响与导致油价震荡的中国价格粘性的其他因素分开。结果显示中美之间形成了鲜明的对比,中国的价格控制显着防止了油价冲击扩散到其国内通货膨胀,特别是在短期内。但是,为了增强经济对石油价格冲击的抵御能力,该论文建议中国逐步放松价格控制。

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